Holiday retail sales forecasts are mixed. Americans plan to spend 5.5% less this season, an average of $1,018, according to Simon-Kucher’s 8th Annual Holiday Shopping Study, returning back to 2024 levels. As household budgets shrink, any retail revenue growth will likely come from higher prices, rather than more purchases, causing retailers to fight for every hard-earned dollar.

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Holiday budgets fall 5.5% after three years of growth. (Source: Simon-Kucher 8th Annual Holiday Shopping Study)

Holiday budgets fall 5.5% after three years of growth. (Source: Simon-Kucher 8th Annual Holiday Shopping Study)

“Holiday budgets are being reset, not abandoned,” said Shikha Jain, Partner and Head of Consumer North America at Simon-Kucher. “High fuel costs and inflation have made consumers far more focused on value and deals. For lower and middle-income households, financial fragility is growing. They’re choosing between record debt and everyday essentials, and holiday gifts add more to the financial pressure.”

While higher-income households are the spending anchors, many consumers are pulling back, drawing on savings and buying with holiday gifts with greater intention. They are shopping earlier, scaling back discretionary purchases and using holiday promotions to stock up on basic needs. Deep discounts of 40% have long passed as retailers also find ways to protect their top and bottom-lines. Shoppers commonly accept savings between 15% and 25%. Across categories, consumers are changing when they shop, what they buy and what trade-offs they are willing to make.

Technology is changing this year’s gift-buying journey. AI is the new shopping assistant, helping consumers find value-oriented deals, compare products, and make more confident decisions. TikTok Shop LIVE gives brands a new storefront with real-time product demos and urgent, limited-time offers. Nearly 60% of TikTok Shop users say they are likely to shop LIVE during the holidays, making it a critical driver of seasonal inspiration and direct-to-consumer conversion.

2026 KEY TRENDS OBSERVED

Consumers are Cutting Costs and Changing How They Shop

  • 77% say inflation has changed their shopping behavior.

  • 37% are relying on promotions for non-essential purchases.

  • 62% are shopping earlier to spread out costs.

Consumers Spend on What Matters

  • 56% will spend extra to maintain holiday traditions.

  • 61% of Millennials say they enjoy flash sales.

  • At 72%, trips and appliances are among the largest holiday spending categories.

AI Is a Shopping Advisor

  • 55% use AI to find the best deals and 51% will use it for comparisons.

  • 76% view AI as somewhat trustworthy, while 29% prefer to make their own shopping decisions.

  • 16% would allow AI to complete a purchase.

Shoppers Want Proof of Value

  • 52% think Black Friday has the best deals.

  • 22% believe advertised discounts reflect true savings, down from 46% in 2025.

  • 48% of Millennials and 30% of Gen X are active coupon hunters.

  • 29% say discounts represent only partial or rarely reflect actual savings.

TikTok Shop Inspires Sales

  • Nearly half of TikTok users have shopped major holiday sales on the platform.

  • 70% have discovered new products.

  • Compared to other social platforms, 76% of TikTok shoppers see better offers, limited-time drops, and special promotions.

“The retailers that win won’t necessarily be the loudest discounters,” said Jain. “They will be the ones that look beyond what consumers plan to spend and understand how and where they make purchase decisions. They will move past product assortment, price, and promotion, and seek other ways to provide value such as service and loyalty to drive traffic this holiday season.”

To request the full study findings, please visit 2026 Holiday Shopping Study | Simon-Kucher.

About the Study: Simon-Kucher’s 8th Annual Holiday Shopping Report analyzed holiday retail market patterns through a nationally representative survey of 1,500 US adult consumers in August. The study examined budgeting, gift category preferences, purchase timing, and the influence of digital platforms. It compares consumer expectations with industry projections to provide actionable insights for retailers and business leaders.

About Simon-Kucher

Simon-Kucher is a global consultancy with more than 2,200 employees in 30+ countries. As a trusted commercial advisor focused on unlocking better growth, we combine deep consulting expertise, growth specialization, and technology to scale lasting impact. We optimize every lever of commercial strategy – product, pricing, innovation, marketing, and sales – based on what customers want and value. With over 40 years of monetization experience, we are recognized as the world’s leading commercial growth and pricing specialist.

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